Harris is flanking Trump on white male outreach
choosing Walz as running mate is another step in this direction
This morning Kamala Harris announced she has chosen Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz is a two-term governor, six-term U.S. Representative, a former football coach, and the quintessential Midwestern Boomer Dad.
calls the Walz selection the “Minnesota Nice Choice,” but I think the choice signifies an identity maneuver that isn’t captured by Silver’s numbers-based calculus.The Walz selection validates what I have been sensing for some time: Harris is flanking Trump on male outreach, especially to straight white men. But the Trump campaign is too dumb to recognize and respond to it.
To be honest, I instinctively like Walz even though he is politically much further to the left than I am. Others seem to have a similar response to him. One friend, who is a boomer male swing voter, texted me this morning saying: I’m voting for Harris Walz. Walz is my kind of middle American.
Another friend, a female Zoomer who leans right, messaged me her impression: Walz is effortlessly like a dad. A nice guy yes but also not a lame nice guy. On the other hand, Vance is forced and seems angry all the time.
Last week, I wrote a piece warning Trump supporters against their lazy use of masculinity tropes to keep men on what I derisively call “the MAGA plantation.” Although some viewed my exhortation as schoolmarmish, I was basically saying: Don’t act like chuds or it will hurt you in the election.
In the post, I reported on my experience attending the “White Dudes for Harris” livestream. While I had mixed feelings about its premise, I recognized it as a powerful and innovative effort to go after Trump’s core demographic base of support. The event drew over 190,000 participants and raised more than $4 million.
Most Trump supporters laughed off White Dudes for Harris instead of recognizing it as a threat. The typical response was, “I don’t know one masculine straight guy who’s excited to vote for Harris,” along with an eye roll.
On one hand, it felt like they weren’t absorbing what I was trying to say. On the other, they are correct that Democrats have struggled with men, especially rural white guys without a college degree. In response, I would point out that it only takes a 1-2% change in voting patterns to make a difference — which is true!
Trump’s selection of JD Vance as a running mate was supposed to cement his appeal to red-state men, but Walz changes that dynamic. Perhaps my instincts are off, but it’s hard for me to imagine men — especially rural straight white guys — identifying with Vance over Walz, all other things aside. While Vance awkwardly plays politician in Brioni suits, Walz dons a hat and t-shirt and looks like an everyman who seems genuinely happy on the campaign trail. Does the Hillbilly Elegy author actually appeal to rural men or, like his book, is he the equivalent of a coffee table piece for coastal elites to signal effort?
I am not saying policy differences don’t matter. Most Trump supporters I know are not going to change their votes because of Walz. Many will correctly point out that he’s a raging leftist, bringing up the BLM riots and other issues in Minnesota that occurred under Walz’s watch. But purely on a relatability and identity level, Waltz will cause cognitive dissonance among both men and women who lean toward Trump but are on the fence. He will appeal to swing voters. I would not expect a sea change in voting patterns, but again, all it takes is 1-2%.
Harris could go full Richard Reeves
To complete the flanking maneuver, Harris could give a speech on men’s issues, drawing from Richard Reeves’s outstanding 2022 book, Of Boys and Men: Why the Modern Male Is Struggling, Why It Matters, and What to Do about It. I recently read this book, and it is groundbreaking with its nuanced and forward-thinking perspective on the issues facing modern males.
As a woman, a biracial American, and a Democrat, Harris is well-positioned to speak to male grievances, including those affecting white guys, in a way that is compelling, even-handed, and within the cultural Overton Window. A speech on these issues, combined with a policy agenda, would be an interesting narrative violation and could represent a harbinger of a new, post-woke ethos. Some might say this is a long shot or wishful thinking on my part, but I think it’s more within reach than people realize.
If I were advising the Trump campaign, which I am not, I would encourage them to speak more to men’s issues at a policy level and not take their core base for granted.
Just as the Trump campaign is wooing Black and Hispanic men, Harris and Walz are well-positioned to woo men in general, especially white men. Think about the storyline potential here: While the white male felon is instrumentalizing black culture in his campaign, the biracial female prosecutor can weaponize whiteness in a smart way too.
Some of you may react negatively to my focus on identity politics in this post, and I understand. I don’t want to live in a country dominated by identity politics; I believe in treating fellow citizens as individuals first and foremost. At the same time, identities and demographics are an electoral reality, and this is campaign season. I believe competition for votes is good and that no group’s votes should be written off or taken for granted.
As I see it, the Harris campaign is out-meming, -organizing, and -innovating the Trump campaign right now. Tim Walz is a smart choice for running mate. If I were part of the Harris campaign, I’d be tempted to refer to him as “Friday Night Walz,” based on his football coaching history and in reference to the popular show “Friday Night Lights.” Maybe that’s dumb or obscure, I don’t know. In any case, I will be interested in seeing if this flanking maneuver is real and if it makes a difference in November.
I think you are correct in that Trump is taking his base for granted. And maybe Walk plays well among the over-50 demographic that stays up to date with their covid boosters, but I would assume that type already votes Democrat.
But I have a hard time believing that the white working class gets excited about this guy who is essentially selected in the role of a token white person. If anything he represents the humiliation of whites, who now have stooped to the level of being pandered to on the basis of their skin color. I don't see how that attracts anyone with dignity.
I think in general people are making way too big a deal about Walz’s — and all the pres/VP candidates’ — past policy decisions and platforms. When it comes right down to it a president’s influence is much more about vibes and personality than most people will admit. The President has to get their agenda through the Congress and public opinion and usually can’t unilaterally make things happen. When people complain about something a candidate believed in an interview or two a few years ago, it don’t much care. What I DO care about it their deportment. What kind of person are they? Do I approve of them as a symbol of America’s “personality” to the world? Like it or not, the president signals to the nation “this is what we’re like now”. I think history will look back on Trump’s caustic way as emblematic of, and a major cause of, this depressing, negative era. Having a nice guy and a woman who laughs a lot in the White House couldn’t be a better tonic for the country right now, regardless of any difficult-to-pass-anyway policy stances.