Let's map every tree on the planet

Why the U.S. and allies should level up climate & natural resources intelligence and make "CNRINT" a new intelligence discipline.

Imagine having to survive on less than $2.15 per day while rebel gangs and foreign companies plunder resources from your land. This is the reality for three-quarters of people living in The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It’s one of the top-five poorest countries in the world and yet one of the richest in natural resources. The DRC produces 70% of the world’s cobalt and a chunk of global diamonds, lithium, and copper as well. In recent years, mining in the country has become a geopolitical issue with China, Wagner Group, and others competing for access to the country’s strategic minerals. If you’re holding a smartphone, the battery probably contains cobalt from the DRC.

Last summer, the think tank I founded, the Boyd Institute, advised DRC President Felix Tshisekedi to level up the country’s natural resources intelligence. Our board chair knows him personally and the global race for critical minerals had been heating up, so the timing was ideal.

Our memo, written by our French-speaking intern, highlighted emerging Earth Observation services, drones, sensors, and other AI-enabled technologies that could make the country’s natural resources much more legible than they are today. We shared some services to check out and pointed to three benefits of our proposed effort: thoroughly inventorying DRCs’s resources (picture a balance sheet of natural resources), better protecting them from exploitation, and strengthening DRC's negotiating position with private and foreign entities.

We are not naive about corruption, but we saw natural resources intelligence as a way to improve the lives of DRC citizens while forging a new development path for other resource-rich nations. President Tshisekedi received our proposal warmly and implemented several of its recommendations.

The inquiry that led us to the DRC project began months earlier with a simple but critical question: Where in the Pentagon do we track the world’s freshwater supply? At the time, the US was experiencing a record drought; the UN was sounding alarms about global water scarcity; and water-related conflicts were increasing worldwide. Tracking water resources seemed vital, and I was curious how the Pentagon incorporated unconventional, resource-related threats into national security strategy. This was in the wake of Covid, an unconventional issue that brought the country to a standstill.

My research pointed to a troubling truth: U.S. national security is flying blind when it comes to climate and natural resources intelligence. It’s not that data isn’t there — in some areas we have an abundance of it — but it’s not being integrated into national security decision-making. The Biden administration has made strides in some areas, but there’s still a significant intelligence gap. A savvy researcher can find data on water, lithium, arable land, water rights, and the like, but it is often fragmented, dated, and sidelined in U.S. national security considerations.

Meanwhile, I dug into startups and technologies tied to natural resources intelligence, and my mind was blown. Companies like Terradepth, Planet Labs, SkyDio, and Pixxel can map the ocean floor using underwater drones, persistently monitor rainforests in real-time via satellites, fly drones with sensors to monitor resources, and use hyperspectral imaging to measure carbon. Agricultural companies are using drones and satellites for crop monitoring.

Today, we have the technology to inventory and map every tree on the planet. In fact, NASA scientist Sassan Satchi is already working on it.¹ Think about that! The possibilities set my imagination on fire. I envisioned a startup with the pitch, “Palantir for natural resources” — which sounds more ominous than intended. I connected the possibilities to an idea I’ve been developing called “transparency of the commons,” which aims to bring transparency to shared global commons.

Here is the key point: As remote sensing, AI, and computational technologies continue to advance, we will soon be able to map, inventory, and monitor nearly every natural resource on the planet. It’s like we are entering a new Age of Discovery — except this time, we have the tools to understand the world at an unprecedented level of precision and scope, from the ocean floor to outer space. And this time, we can help developing countries like DRC protect what they have instead of pillaging it. Today’s equivalents to Christopher Columbus and Ferdinand Magellan are not setting sail on the open seas; they’re using remote sensing and other technologies to map the known world from above.

Some organizations are already demonstrating the potential to monitor natural resources in real time. For instance, ClimateTRACE, a global coalition, tracks greenhouse gas emissions using satellite imagery and AI. I’m also impressed by John Doerr’s use of OKR’s to visually track progress toward reducing global carbon emissions, though it would be even better if the data were dynamic and real-time. These models could be expanded to other areas, turning the world’s natural resources into actionable data.

The prospect of resources legibility may feel scary to some. What are the implications of this dramatically expanded knowledge? Who should control this intelligence? What should be shared publicly versus kept private? How can we ensure the intelligence is used to protect instead of plunder resources?

These are valid questions to work through, but we should recognize the urgency of the matter: If the U.S. does’t take the initiative on natural resources intelligence, others — be they countries, hedge funds, or private actors — will fill the void and their intentions may not be as noble. We've already seen this in Arizona, where Saudi-owned companies have bought up farm land and hedge funds have scooped up land with water rights.

By leading the charge, the U.S. can help ensure that greater natural resources legibility is used for the good of humanity, now and into the future. We can use the information to support a rules-based order, provide a common fact base to solve problems, and make sure we protect precious resources for future generations.

As any business guy can attest, you can’t manage what you can’t measure — that’s why we should take the initiative to advance natural resources intelligence ASAP.

To move faster in this direction, we should:

1. Make Climate & Natural Resources Intelligence (CNRINT) a recognized intelligence discipline: This would legitimize the field, create career paths, and attract talent.

2. Create a CNRINT leadership Role: Appoint a cabinet-level leader to coordinate and integrate CNRINT efforts, adding natural resources to the climate portfolio.

3. Promote CNRINT with allies: Perhaps UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield could lead an international effort to level up intelligence and make it the focus of one of the next COP events.

4. Encourage private sector and NGO innovation: Imagine someone creating a Bellingcat-style investigative outlet focused on natural resources, for example. Imagine OSINT training broadening to include climate & natural resources.

5. Get some wins in high-need regions: Perhaps the U.S. Development Finance Corporation could invest in satellite- and drone-based intelligence in central African countries as a form of infrastructure.

While these recommendations are framed in the context of U.S. national security, the impact of natural resources intelligence can be transformative in a place like the DRC. That’s why I was glad to advise President Tshisekedi, and I’ll update you on any new developments.

So yeah, let’s map every tree on the planet… and all other resources. Let’s protect the future of humanity.

1. I highly recommend this Bionic Planet podcast episode