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ARC's avatar

This hit. The mood, the disorientation, the quiet spiritual collapse—weigh you caught all that without forcing it. It’s rare to name a vibe and still leave space for freedom, not doom. Felt like a real-time dispatch from the edge of something ancient breaking. I’m with you. Let’s choose better.

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Jeff Giesea's avatar

thanks so much Andrew. the vibe is everywhere

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Ishmael Hodges's avatar

I feel sad that reading someone as honest and forthright as you makes me feel a sense of relief. It shouldn't be as rare as it is, it shouldn't take an act of bravery, but it does, and I thank you for doing it. Excellent piece.

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Jeff Giesea's avatar

Ah thanks Ishmael

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CansaFis Foote's avatar

…who could have expected a TV celebrity most famous for firing people like its a catch phrase would serve as the totemic signal of how deeply our country is lost…i am part of the problem…i voted for jesse ventura and chose chaos in one of my first official elections…i know this isn’t all political…nor should technology take full blame for our deepingly cynical distance from each other…but neither art is helping…we all want to win so bad it has made us losers…

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Jeff Giesea's avatar

You know the late-stage-empire vibes are real when professional wrestlers enter politics.

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CansaFis Foote's avatar

…so true…worse still…it is a direct plot point in the film idiocracy by the guy who wrote beavis and butthead…when your world starts to mimic comedic dystopian sci-fi you are entering into the late stage empire zone…

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Bo's avatar

Well said, I always wondered what Roman’s who hated their elites thought when Visigoth’s rampaged through their streets.

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Jeff Giesea's avatar

Thanks Bo

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Bobby Weekends's avatar

accurate.

have you read the AI 2027 essay (http://ai-2027.com) yet? the "despair > consult cGPT" pipeline you mentioned is one of the phenomena they mention in passing

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Jeff Giesea's avatar

Thanks. Haven't read that — will check it out.

Just noticed this article on it https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/technology/ai-futures-project-ai-2027.html

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David Muccigrosso's avatar

Indeed. This is what Rome did to itself too. The Goths weren’t invaders, they were supplicants trying to follow a longstanding tradition of entering the empire, who got abused by a paranoid elite and driven past the brink of sacking Rome.

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CGK's avatar

I go back and forth in feeling this way. People have felt this level of doom many times in American history. Many issues you’re describing are due to new technologies that we just haven’t adjusted to yet (social media, AI, unchecked levels of misinformation). I also think this mentality affects the terminally online more than normal people, and that in many ways we’re far better off now than ever before.

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Andres's avatar

Great stuff, but a great fall hasn’t happened, and probably won’t, because of the world’s appetite for USD and so-denominated assets

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Josh G's avatar

Hey Jeff, it's definitely not just you. The vibes are rancid to anyone who's paying close attention.

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Drake Greene's avatar

I'm a big believer in the wisdom of the market, and the market has certainly spoken in the last few days. There are a lot of people who know better about tarrifs. Where are their voices?

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Jeff Giesea's avatar

They’re screaming about it, but there’s nothing they can do.

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Not-Toby's avatar

Note that the Romans survived many such moments. Though only so long with all the republic intact. Imo America has as well, just before we had a pseudo-empire. Jackson, etc.

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Bayesian's avatar

Sorry for late reply. I'm not sure which moments you are referring to given your "with all the [Roman] republic intact". I'd call the end of institutional integrity in the Roman Republic ca 82 BCE (Sulla's victory at Colline Gate and the decisive defeat of the Marian faction) the absolute last possible end. Perhaps more likely the Gracchi/Senatorial conflicts of the 130s and Tiberius Gracchus' standing for reelection as tribune of the plebs in 133 BCE.

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Not-Toby's avatar

I’m a massive novice when it comes to Roman history but that’s about the period I was thinking. I just meant that this is less late stage empire and more acute imperial crisis - not that it makes my life any better but I imagine that the state will stick around for a long while

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Bayesian's avatar

Ah, thanks. I failed to grasp your original point; mea maxima culpa :)

Acute imperial crisis rather than late stage is an interesting thought that I will have to ruminate on. Shallowly, and worth what you paid for it :), maybe the War of Southern Secession was the opening chapter of the transaction from republican to imperial state for the US (hardcore paleocons and Confederate sympathizers/apologists seem to think so), analogous to the Gracchi, with WW2 => Cold War the solidification of the Imperial state formation (Caesars wars to the stable Augustan solution). I'm not sure how closely to map McKinley/TR era New Imperialism through Wilson and the interwar retreat/retrenchment to key events like Marius and Sulla. Need more beer :)

Thanks much, Not-Toby.

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Miguel Cruz's avatar

“But he hasn’t got anything on!” the whole town cried out at last.

The Emperor shivered, for he suspected they were right. But he thought, “This procession has got to go on.” So he walked more proudly than ever, as his noblemen held high the train that wasn’t there at all.”

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Jeff Giesea's avatar

Hans Christian Andersen knew the vibe.

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Christopher Shinn's avatar

What books did it recommend? We humans may have some recs too...

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Jeff Giesea's avatar

Being and Nothingness, The Stranger, At the Existentialist Cafe, and a few others. Any less obvious ones you'd recommend? I'm thinking of digging into more of Sartre's essays. I also found this Stanford course syllabus, but I'm not sure I'm feeling ambitious enough to tackle all of it: https://web.stanford.edu/~jsabol/existentialism/basics.html

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Christopher Shinn's avatar

From that Stanford reading list, I'd at least dip into Kierkegaard, Heidegger, and Nietzsche. And I'd read "The Fall" over "The Stranger" if you're going to read a Camus novel. There is a great Girard essay about why the former is a deeper work than the latter...

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Jeff Giesea's avatar

Thanks for the suggestions — will check out "The Fall" and the others.

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The Duke Report's avatar

Empires come and go, sloughed off by an ongoing oligarchy that sheds them like a spider sheds its carapace. https://thedukereport.substack.com/p/the-power-structure-of-the-world

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Matt Cyr's avatar

Ah Jeff, this was even better than expected. The balanced perspective and agenda free take here is so refreshing to read.

Very much appreciated the hope and choice to believe this can get better and it’s not a terminal destiny. As a parent, I feel responsible to at least maintain hope, set an example for my kids, for me to give up would feel like a slap in the face to them. Crazy times we’re in for sure. I’m sure my parents and grand parents said the same at some point. Appreciate your writing here. Keep bringing it.

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Andrei Petrovitch's avatar

I fee the vibes too, but my suggestions are:

1) live in truth- no matter what the far right and far left say, 1+2=3, the sun rises in the east and sets in the west, etc. Question your opinions, yes, but don’t start questioning empirical reality.

2) take care of yourself and loved ones- to paraphrase Sting (the singer, not the Wrestler), when the world is running down, family and friends make the best of what’s still around. Take breaks from politics and doom scrolling and create art, community, etc. Defeating our age of stupid is a marathon, not a sprint, so rest up when you can.

3) keep in mind we’ve been here before ( in fact, the parallels between Trump’s reelection and Dubya’s 20 years prior are eerie). The Fall of Pax Americana and the post war order have been predicted before, and we’ve survived. So, we’ll likely survive this age of ludicrousity.

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